The Sports Guru

Projected Record

12-4, 1st Place NFC West

Projected Schedule W/L

@Detroit (W)
Arizona (W)
NY Giants (W)
@Chicago (L)
@St. Louis (W)
Minnesota (W)
@Kansas City (L)
Oakland (W)
St. Louis (W)
@San Francisco (W)
Green Bay (W)
@Denver (L)
@Arizona (W)
San Francisco (W)
San Diego (W)
@Tampa Bay (L)

The weakest division in football. The reigning MVP at running back. A coach that has led teams to 3 different Super Bowls. A Pro Bowl quarterback. All is well in the Great Northwest as the Seahawks beging thier quest to defend the first Conference Championship in team history. Sometime things come together just right for a team, and it did for Seattle as they have taken advantage of a down division and down conference as a whole to leap to the top of the heap. That’s not to say they didn’t deserve it. Shaun Alexander is a top 3 runningback in this league and Matt Hasselbeck has emerged as one of the top signal callers in the game. Mike Holmgren, when he is focused just on coaching, has proven he can win big ballgames and get to Super Bowls. The sting of the Super Bowl loss and how it went down still permeates the air around Qualcomm Stadium, and how the Seahawks deal with that, and an improved NFC as a whole will determine their success this season. All the peices are back, so it’s all right there in front of them for the taking.

Team Strengths – The Seahawks will go as far as the legs of MVP Shaun Alexander and arm of Matt Hasselbeck will take them. Last season, that was pretty far. Alexander broked the single season rushing TD mark with 27 and rushed for nearly 1900 yards. He is looking for 2000 this season and would like to get 30 TD’s. Hasselbeck had a fine season himself, throwing for nearly 3500 yards and 24 TD’s. The receiving corp is solid if not spectacular and should be helped by the acquisition of Nate Burleson from Minnesota. Darrell Jackson emerged in 2005 to be the go to receiver for Hasselbeck, but has been slow to recover from off-season knee surgery. Bobby Engram remains steady and Peter Warrick should see more action in 2006. The Offensive Line has been a strong suit for the Seahawks b ut will have to make up for the loss of Steve Hutchenson, who went to Minnesota as a Free Agent. On defense, was any rookie a bigger impact on their team last season than LB Lofa Tatupu? Not only did he start as a rookie but he made all the defensive calls from the MLB position. Pretty Impressive. Add to that mix former 49′er Julian Peterson and you have one of the best LB corps in the NFL. On a bright note, safety Ken Hamlin will make his return after being severly injured in a fight outside a Seattle nightclub. It’s been a long road and I’m glad to see him back on the field.

Team Weaknesses - When a team gets to the Super Bowl weaknesses on the field are few and far between. It is usually off the field distractions that cause the problems. Shaun Alexander found himself on the cover of Madden ‘07 and has been doing dozens commercials. Matt Hasselbeck has also had to deal with Super Bowl stardom, as he did the talk show circuit. The whole team has had to deal with questions regarding everything from Super Bowl officiating to whether or not this will be Holmgren’s last season in Seattle. On the field there are some question marks. They will have to replace Hutchenson upfront. The corners are suspect, though Marcus Trufant should have a breakout season. I was never a big fan of Kelly Herndon and the Seahawks drafted Kelly Jennings to replace him, but Jennings has struggled and Herndon again will start.

Best Case Scenario – There is no challenger in teh NFC West for Seattle so they need to focus on getting home-field advantage. Qualcomm is one of the toughest places to play for opposing teams and the Seahawks want to road to Miami to lead right through Seattle. It seems the loss to Pittsburgh has left the stars on this team hungry and that should work to the Seattle’s advantage. They do have some roles they need to fill, but the newcomers on the team are a talent upgrade over the guys they are replacing. If they can be the #1 seed in the NFC the Seahawks should run the table and get back to the Super Bowl.


Worst Case Scenario - If the off-season distractions effect this team they could falter slightly. Remember, there is noone in their division even close so that should be 6 wins right there. But let’s take a look at the last 4 NFC teams in the Super Bowl. Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl, but didn’t make the playoffs the next year. Next came Carolina, but they missed the playoffs the next year. Next, Philadelphia, and we all know what happened to them last season. Now it is Seattle’s turn. Barring injury, I really don’t see a way this team doesn’t make the playoffs, but anything less than the Super Bowl would be considered a disappointment.

My Opinion - Seattle is loaded and back to make another run at that elusive first championship. It won’t be easy for Seattle, as the NFC as a whole has improved dramatically. For Super Bowl team their schedule is pretty soft, though they are matched up with their former AFC West counterparts. I think that Seattle will end up with the #1 seed in a tie-breaker, but for some reason see them losing the NFC Championshiip game at home. I really like Seattle, but I like the other team left from the NFC a little better and am going with that team to win. History in the NFC shows it is tough to repeat(of course Philly did it 4 times, but the conference is alot stronger now than it was then). I think Seattle has a shot to, but will fall short.

Technorati Tags: seattle seahawks, 2006 nfl preview, seahawks preview, nfl, football, shaun alexander, matt hasselbeck, mike holgren, seahawks, nfl playoffs, super bowl

Projected Record

11-5, 2nd Place AFC East

Projected Schedule W/L

@Pittsburgh (L)
Buffalo (W)
Tennessee (W)
@Houston (W)
@New England (L)
@NY Jets (W)
Green Bay (W)
@Chicago (L)
Kansas City (W)
Minnesota (W)
@Detroit (W)
Jacksonville (W)
New England(W)
@Buffalo (L)
NY Jets (W)
@Indianapolis (L)

Sometimes all a team needs is a change in leadership to kick-start their success. A change in direction, someone to drop the hammer, to accept nothing less than the best from everyone in the organization. The Dolphins went after that change last off-season, bringing Nick Saban out of the college ranks to clean up the mess left by Dave Wannstedt. Saban brought a new attitude to the Dolphins. A change in culture. There would be no excuses. No excuses for losing. No excuses for playing poorly, no excuses for being late to a meeting. Saban was creating a winning attitude. The Dolphins were not going to think they could win, they were going to believe they could win. With a new attitude success came quickly, as the Dolphons won their last 6 games to finish at 9-7, narrowly missing the playoffs. Expectations run high in Miami, and the re-building continues with the arrival of Quarterback Daunte Culpepper. The Dolphins will look to him to provide the leadership to get them to the next step. Will success come equally as swift for the Dolphins?

Team Strengths – The Dolphins have spent the better part of a decade relying on it’s defense and under Saban little is going to change. This unit has started to grow a little long in the tooth, but Saban has done a good job through the draft and free agency to inject some young talent. MLB Zach Thomas is still the emotional leader of the team, along with DE Jason Taylor. Both are in double-digits as far as service time, Thomas in his 11th year, Taylor his 10th, and both have started to show signs of wear and tear. Both will have to play at a high level for Miami to be successful. There is talented youth, however, in LB Channing Crowder and 1st Round Pick CB Jason Allen. Both will be looked upon to play major roles in the defense this season. On offense, Mami’s biggest acquisitions came at quarterback. Daunte Culpeper was brought in to take over and should immediately improve the passing game. If he falters, the Dolphins acquired Joey Harrington to be his backup. Both are upgrades to what the Dolphins had last season. Ronnie Brown showed flashes of greatness and will be looked upon to carry the load for the running game. Chris Chambers is one of the most underrated receivers in the game and should be that much better with Culpepper at QB. Leadership from the top is a strong suit of the Dolphins and Saban is one of the nest young coaches in football at any level.

Team Weaknesses - Some of the Dolphins strengths could be considered weaknesses depending on how you look at it. Ronnie Brown has never had to carry the load before, in college or the pros, but will have to with the suspension to Ricky Williams. Culpepper is trying to rebound from a serious kne injury, but was having a terrible season before the injury and will have to get back to the way he played in 2004. Like many teams the O-line is thin and will need to play over their heads a bit to keep Culpepper upright. If Culpepper can regain his mobility he should be able to hide some of the deficiencies. On defense, the front seven will need to pressure opposing quarterbacks because the DB’s are young and raw. Jason Allen will start as a rookie, former Giant Will Allen will man the other side. Allen has a lot of talent but was too aggressive at times, making him suseptible to the pump fake and long ball. Both Safety positions are still up for grabs and whomever starts will be raw at best.

Best Case Scenario – The Dolphins will need Culpepper to play at a high level right from the start to make up for the youth on defense. The schedule should allow Miami to get off to a good start. After a tough game in Pittsburgh to open the season the Fish should be able to win 5 or 6 of their next 7 games. They also get to go to New England while the weather is still favorable. If Miami can start the season the way they ended 2005 they could roll all the way to a first round bye. The DB’s are young, but if they can gel early they should be a formidable unit.


Worst Case Scenario - Even before the injury Culpepper was playing the worst football of his career. He fumbles way too much and at times can make poor decisions with where he throws the ball. This leads to a lot of interceptions. He will have to avoid the big mistake. If Culpepper has a physical setback Miami will be forced to turn to Joey Harrington. He has a ton of experience but his time in Detroit has crushed his confidence. Saban is spending the pre-season building Harrington back up but the hope is that they won’t have to go to him this season. When Ronnie Brown was at Auburn he split time with Cadillac Williams, and last year with Ricky Williams in Miami. This season Brown will be relied upon to be the man. If he beaks down the Dolphins really don’t have anyone behind him. On dynamic to watch will be the relationship between Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor, with Taylor in the middle of divorcing Thomas’ sister Katina. Both have said all the right things so far, but we’ll see how it goes as the process continues. If the young DB’s falter the Dolphins will have a tough time against the pass.

My Opinion - Miami took a big step forward last season, as Saban was able to change the culture of losing that had taken over the franchise. Can the Dolphins take another large step and become Super Bowl Contenders? There are too many questions out ther e for me to believe that. I still see the AFC East as the Patriots divsion to lose, but the Dolphins have made up ground and Saban has his team nipping at the heals of his former boss’ team. Winning has it’s own learning curve and the Dolphins will take the next logical step and get into the playoffs. How far they go will depend on how well Daunte Culpepper and Ronnie Brown play, but with questions hovering over both of them I think playoff success could be a bit much to ask for. The Dolphins will be the 5th seed before losing to the Steelers on Wild Card Weekend. Another successful step or Saban and company in their quest to lead the Dolphins back to greatness.

Technorati Tags: miami dolphins, jason taylor, dolphins, NFL, football, NFL 2006 Season Preview, Dolphins 2006 Preview, Nick Saban, Daunte Culpepper, Ronnie Brown, Zach Thomas

Projected Record

11-5, 1st Place NFC East

Projected Schedule W/L

@Jacksonville (W)
Washington (W)
@Tennessee (W)
@Philadelphia (L)
Houston (W)
NY Giants (W)
@Carolina (L)
@Washington (L)
@Arizona (W)
Indianapolis (W)
Tampa Bay (W)
@NY Giants (L)
New Orleans (W)
@Atlanta (L)
Philadelphia (W)
Detroit (W)

The Circus has come to town. T.O.’s arrival in Dallas has Jerry Jones feeling mighty good about the Cowboy’s chances in 2006. There have been many questions since the signing about how Bill Parcells feels about the whole situation. I wrote in an earlier column aboout my feelings for Parcells and the undo credit and respect he gets around the league. Jerry Jones own the Cowboys and Parcells will have to coach whomever Jones wants to put in a Star helmet. To his credit Parcells has said all the right things so far and the relationship seems amicable, even though Owens has misses all of camp with a hamstring “injury”. Somehow I think Ownes will miraculously heal in time for Week 1 against the Jags and all will be forgotten. There are some other questions surrounding the Cowboys as they head into a season that some think may end in Super fashion.

Team Strengths – This team is loaded offensively, with Drew Bledsoe running the show. Owens adds a downfield dynamic to the offense and is the perfect compliment for Terry Glenn. The player that may benefit most from Owens arrival is TE Jason Witten who will thrive when matched up against a linebacker one on one. The Cowboys drafted another TE, Anthony Fasano from Notre Dame, to be the tough, hard nosed blocker when they line up in two TE sets. The ‘Coys also sport two running backs that have the ability to get it done in Julius Jones and Marion Barber. On defense this team is flat out nasty. DeMarcus Ware is on the verge of a breakout season and should cause havoc to opposing offenses all season. Chris Canty hasa been getting rave reviews during camp and sources say he is the perfect DE for the 3-4 system the Cowboys have converted to. Roy Williams anchors the secondary and is one of the hardest hitters in the league.
Team Weaknesses - As strong as the Cowboys look on offense there are some question marks. The Offensive line is average at best, with many of the starters coming back from injuries. The Tackle postion is up for grabs, with Flozell Adams, Mark Colombo and Jason Fabini all vying for starting spots. Neither has played particularly well during camp and that has Parcells concerned. Though effective as a unit, one of the two running backs is going to need to step up and be THE guy. Both have shown flashes but both have been inconsistent. Drew Bledsoe has the numbers of some of the greats, but he is not a good decision maker and is known to hold onto the ball too long. With this line that could be a bad thing. On defense, the secondary is talented but young and inconsistent. Roy Williams is a stud, but his aggressiveness can get the better of him, as shown against Washington last season.

Best Case Scenario – Everything stays smooth on the Owens front. This team has alot of talent and is good enough to win the tough NFC East. If Owens can stay on the field this team has a chance to have a special season. Getting off to a good start is going to be key, the ‘Boys play 6 of their first 9 games on the road. Get through that stretch and 5 of their last 7 are at home.

Worst Case Scenario - The Owens/Parcells marriage blows up in everyone’s face and the Cowboys fall victom to what happened to the Eagles last season. T.O. thinks he should get the ball on every play and has no problem letting everyone around him know that. How Drew Bledsoe handles the constant banter from Owens will go along way towards keeping things calm in Dallas. Getting off to a poor start with all those road games could lead to troubled waters as well. Parcells is known for calling out his players in the media, and the fact that he hasn’t mentioned Owens by name so far means that he’ll have no problem treating Owens like anyone else.

My Opinion - The Cowboys have the talent to win the Super Bowl. There is also a chance that the constant media barrage surrounding them can take it’s toll and the situation could explode. T.O is going to be T.O. He is going to talk. He is going to miss practice. He is going to play on Sunday and score alot of TD’s. But can a team win with a “me first” guy on the team. There haven’t been many examples of it in any sport. Guys like T.O. usually have a way of destroying a locker room. He did it in San Francisco, he really did it in Philadelphia. Now he goes to Dallas, to a coach that supposedly can handle him. I’m not so sure. The one constant is T.O. does play hard and always seem to put up big numbers the first season. If he does that, the Cowboys will win big. There is, however, too much distraction and too many questions for this team to get to or win a Super Bowl. The ‘Boys get to the playoffs, but lose in the 2nd Round to the eventual NFC Champs. Who you ask? You’ll just have to wait and see.

Projected Record

11-5, 2nd Place AFC West

Projected Schedule W/L
Cincinnati (W)
@Denver (L)
San Francisco (W)
@Arizona (W)
@Pittsburgh (L)
San Diego (W)
Seattle (W)
@St. Louis (W)
@Miami (L)
Oakland (W)
Denver (W)
@Cleveland (W)
Baltimore (W)
@San Diego (L)
@Oakland (L)
Jacksonville (W)
The crying is over. After 5 years of trying to get the Kansas City Chiefs over the hump and back to the Super Bowl for the first time in forever, Dick Vermeil finally called it quits. Thus began a curious chain of events that lead to a trade with the New York Jets, a 4th round pick for Head Coach Herm Edwards. Edwards started his coaching career in the Chiefs organization and his relationship with Chiefs GM Carl Peterson goes back to college. Rumors of Edwards arrival in K.C. started even before the 2005 season finished. Edwards denied the rumors doazens of times, the last 2 days before he was standing on a podium at Arrowhead Stadium. Edwards left a team in shambles, and comes to a team that is trying to win with a core group of players on the wrong side of 30. If the Chiefs are going to win, Edwards needs to bring defense back to K.C. How quickly they pick up the scheme will determine if the Chiefs get back to the playoffs.

Team Strengths – Even without Vermeil or former Offensive Coordinator Al Saunders(Washington) the Chiefs are going to put up numbers. They have a Pro Bowl quarterback in Trent Green. Tony Gonzalez is still one of the best Tight Ends in the game. Oh, and 2005 was a coming out party for Larry Johnson, who finally got his chance when Priest Holmes was lost for the season in Week 8. Johnson went on to rush for 1750 yards, including two 200 yard games and seven 100 yard games the final 9 weeks of the season. The Offensive line, anchored by Pro Bowlers Willie Roaf and Will Shields, has been one of the best in the league for years. That took a hit right before training camp when Roaf announced his retirement. The Chiefs are holding out hope that he will change his mind, but if he doesn’t there are some question marks there. The defense still needs to improve, but with Ty Law joining Patrick Surtain in the backfield the pass defense should be vastly improved.

Team Weaknesses - The defense is still a weakness and how they improve under Herm Edwards will be the key to their season. DT Ryan Sims has been a bust and will need to play to his ability. Jared Allen was a pleasant surprise on the outside and the Chiefs think they have a stud in LB Derrick Johnson. The Chiefs further added to the front seven, drafting Tamba Hali a DE from Penn State, in the 1st Round to add to the pass rush. There are still holes and depth is a concern. With Law and Surtain the defense should be improved.

Best Case Scenario – Willie Roaf decides he wants to come back and the O-Line is as dominate as ever. Larry johnson is a Fantasy Football dream and should put up huge numbers in this offense. The Chiefs are aging a little bit and the window is starting to close on Green, Gonzalez and the DB’s. If the Chiefs can put it all together one more time they have the explosive talent to catch lightning in a bottle and make a run. The Chiefs need to get up on teams early and let their talented DB’s take over games.

Worst Case Scenario - If Roaf stays retired the Chiefs offense may struggle just a little bit. Kyle Turley was brought in after missing most of the past two seasons with back issues. He is playing at 280 pounds, about 20 pounds less than his playing weight, and his durability is a question. Sure Law and Surtain were dominate defenders in their prime, but both are well past that and are going to need the D-Line to get pressure on opposing QB’s to shorten the time they have to chase receivers. Ty Law led the league with 10 picks last season, but also led the league is pass interference penalties.

My Opinion - The Chiefs needed a change in leadership and got it in Edwards. He is a players coach who gets the respect of his team and gets them to play hard for him. The Chiefs are aging, but seem to be aging gracefully. larry Johnson is going to put up great numbers and Edwards is going to find ways to get the ball to Tony Gonzalez, who only had 2 TDs last season. The O-Line is going to be an issue, but LJ is too good to let it slow him down. I think they have one more double-digit win season in them, and with the schedule they have, this will be it. In a rough and tough AFC the Chiefs will be the 6 seed with an 11-5 record, before losing to the Patriots in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs.

Projected Record

10-6, 1st Place AFC North

Projected Schedule W/L
Miami                        (W)
@Jacksonville            (L)
Cincinnati                  (W)
@San Diego              (L)
Kansas City               (W)
@Atlanta                    (W)
@Oakland                 (L)
Denver                      (L)
New Orleans               (W)
@Cleveland                 (W)
@Baltimore                 (W)
Tampa Bay                  (W)
Cleveland                    (W)
@Carolina                   (L)
Baltimore                    (W)
@Cincinnati                 (L)

It took 25 years, but the Steelers finally produced “One for the Thumb” in 2005.  Seemingly coming out of nowhere, the Steelers reeled off 6 straight wins, including 3 road playoff games to win their first championship under Head Coach Bill Cowher.  It was a great sports story, with future Hall of Famer Jerome Bettis going back home to Detroit, ending his career at the top of his profession.  After several near misses, Cowher was able to silence critics and finally win the big one.  Ben Roethlisberger became the youngest quarterback to start a Super Bowl and Hines Ward won the Super Bowl MVP, not bad for a guy that played quarterback in college.  There have been questions since then, starting with the Bettis retirement.  Then 1st Round pick Santonio Holmes had run-ins with the law.  Ben Roethlisberger was seriously injured in a motorcycle accident.  And most recently, questions about Cowher’s future with the team has begun the surface.  Repeating as Super Bowl Champ is hard enough, and when added to all the off-field distractions of this off-season, it may be impossible.

Team Strengths – It hasn’t changed in 40 years in Pittsburgh, it’s the defense.  The Steelers are going to play hard nosed defense, hit you hard, and force you to do what you aren’t comfortable doing as an offense.  It all starts in the middle, where DT Casey Hampton mans the all important nose tackle position in the 3-4.  With Hampton clogging up the middle, LB’s Joey Porter, Larry Foote, Clarke Haggins and James Farrier are able to run free all over the field smashing unsuspecting receivers or overloading an offensive line, getting to the quarterback unabated.  It that isn’t enough S Troy Palamalu is roaming the secondary, often playing like a 5th linebacker, creating havoc in offensive gameplans. This unit returns largely unchanged, and as long as Bill Cowher is the Head Coach the style of play won’t change either.  Another common denominator of the Steelers for the past 4 decades is a dominant running game.  The offensive line is one of the best in football year in, year out, and that doesn’t figure to change.  There is some question as to how the running game will produce, wothout Bettis in the lineup.

Team Weaknesses - Over Confidence.  Defending champions rarely have many weaknesses.  The Steelers head into the season sky-high after the way they played in the playoffs last season and for good reason.  What they need to be careful of is living in the past.  Last year is last year, and it’s over.  Every team on the schedule will be gunning to beat the Steelers, and after celebrating a championship the team is a little behind in their preperation.  Duce Staley will be called upon to fill the role of Bettis, but durability is a big question mark.  Bettis was a huge influence in the locker room as well, a loss that won’t be replaced as eaisly.  The loss of WR Antwan Randel El will also effect the Steelers ability to surprise opponents and someone will have to step up to become the big play threat opposite Hines Ward.

Best Case Scenario – The Steelers hit rewind and re-play the 2004 season.  It can’t get much better than that.  Seriously, Ben Roethlisberger can no longer rely on the leadership of Bettis and Randel El and will need to become a more vocal leader in the Tom Brady mold.  With rookies like Santonio Holmes causing trouble off the field Ben needs to step in a get these guy in gear.  The Steelers need to stay hungry and somehow keep the “us against the world” mentality they used late last season.  The Steelers play on attitude and toughness, and they’ll need every bit of it.  Ask any player that has won a Super Bowl and they’ll tell you to repeat is alot tougher than to actually win it the first time.  If the Steelers can avoid the post-Super Bowl doldrums they’ll be right there in the end.

Worst Case Scenario  -  After New England won their first Super Bowl they came back and went 9-7, missing the playoffs entirely.  Carolina went to the Super Bowl 3 years ago, and missed the playoffs the next season.  The Eagles missed the playoffs last season after going to the Super Bowl.  It happens, alot.  The Steelers are in a vulnerable position.  They are transitioning at several spots, at running back, receiver, safety, all positions where the team is goiong to need to find someone to step in a make plays.  If they do not the Steelers could struggle.  The teams around the Steelers in the AFC North have improved as well, with Cincinnati and Baltimore looking to make playoff runs as well.  Off the field distractions could also derail the season, so the Steelers are going to need to keep their focus on the field and not on Cowher’s contract status.

My Opinion - It is tough to repeat in any sport.  It might be toughest in the NFL where the economic model vies to create parody.  Cowher and the Steelers had worked for 15 years to figure out how to win their first tite together and will have only 8 months to figure out how to defend that title.  That, coupled with the toughness of their schedule, and the off-field distractions, will be the undoing of the Steelers.  Big Ben has yet to take a step back and without Bettis and Randel El this just might be the year.  I can’t put my finger on it but I think the Steelers are going to struggle a bit in 2006.  I would not be surprised if they missed the playoff entirely, but Cowher is too good of a coach to let things slide to far. 10-6 should be enough to win the North, get the Steelers back into the playoffs, before they lose in a rematch with the Broncos.

10-6, 1st Place AFC North