The Sports Guru

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Sure, Tuesday is an “off” day for NFL players, but I have a feeling if you visited the Dove Valley comples today there would be quite a few guys there getting extra treatment or taking a look at some extra film.  At least there had better be!  The Broncos control the future that lie in front of them; Best the Bengals on Christmas Eve and the 49′ers on New Year’s Eve and head to the playoffs as the #5 seed.  Lose to the Bengals, and most likely spend January at their favorite golf course or vacation spot.

Time to turn our attention to Ocho Cinco, carson Palmer, T.J. Whosyourmama and the rest of the cons that play for the Cincinnati Bengals.  Living in Cleveland I see alot of the Bengals, and I have watched a team play brilliantly at times, and not so much at others.  Some of that I wouold attribute to a quarterback still trying to return from a horrible knee injury, if more mentally than physically.  

Some of it has to be the off-field distractions, indiscretions that have seen the arrest of 8 different players.  The team has also been the victom of some terrible injuries to key players, including David Pollack who may never play again.

Whatever the reason, the Bengals have been up and down and like the Broncos find themselves heading into Sunday’s matchup facing a virtual must win.  What did I take away from last night’s game in Indy?  

First, the Bengals are a team without a real identity.  I know that the temptation of playing a run defense like the Colts had to be strong, but the Bengals haven’t run the ball well all year, and coupled with the fact they were without Levi Jones and Willie Anderson left ealry in the game it might have been a better idea to go back to what the team does well and that’s spread the ball and use all those weapons at your disposal.  3/8 for 33 yards in the first half just won;t get it done.

What does that mean for this Sunday?  The Bengals do throw the ball well, all over the field, and the Broncos have been less than stellar against teams that do just that.  I expect Cincy to come into the game, run a lot of no huddle, and throw the ball early and often, especially down the field where the Bengals hurt the Broncos on that Monday Night 2 years a go.

Defensively the Bengals are alot like the Broncos.  They play in streaks hot and cold.  At times they look unbeatable, at others like a seive.  The Broncos are going to find it a tough go on the ground, but there will be plays to be made threw the air.  Peyton Manning used a short passing attack to methodically move the Colts down the field.  Not only was it effective, but it kept the Bengal defense on the field way too long.  By third quarter you could tell the big guys up front were winded, and couldn’t muster much of a rush.  

I would love to see the Broncos go three wide, and utilize Tony Scheffler much in the same way the Colts did, to burn clock, keep the ball for long stretches, and let Carson Palmer and Co. rot on the sidelines.

One other key, and there are examples in several games to back me up.  Get pressure on Palmer.  He is still very weary of his knee, and who wouldn’t be.  That’s not to say he isn;t hanging in there, or afraid to get hit, but his accuracy drops way down when he has guys around his feet and legs, and last night’s 4 fumbles prove that he is thinking about other things than ball management when pressured.  Now, unfortunitely for us Levi Jones will probably be back, and the Broncos don’t have a pass rusher like Dwight Freeney.  But if Ebenzar Ekuban and Elvis Dumervil can supply some of the pressure Freeney was able to create it might be enough.

One last tidbit.  I can’t wait to see the showdown between Champ Bailey and Chad Johnson.  Johnson owned Bailey the last time the two met, no doubt about it.  Champ remembers this and is having a career season.  If Champ can come up big against 85 this Sunday, the Broncos probably win the game and Champ gets some retribution.  Not becuase 85 is the only weapon the Bengals have, but when Johnson isn’t getting the ball he becomes a bit of a distraction.

The onus this Sunday is going to be on the defense and the crowd.  Indy’s crowd did a nice job of not allowing the Bengals offense to get confortable.  The Denver crowd needs to be in full throat and give the defense the lift it needs to get past the Bengals and into the playoffs.

Technorati Tags: Denver Broncos, AFC Playoff Picture, Cincinnati Bengals, Carson Palmer, Ocho Cinco, Chad Johnson, Jay Cutler, Javon Walker

Jay Cutler and Matt Leinart were poked, prodded and dissected before last April’s NFL Draft. Along with Vince Young, the three quarterbacks were ripped apart and built back up as franchise saviors for the teams that would eventually acquired them. Many thought that Cutler, the least successful in college, was the best of the three.

Young was the first to go, at #3 to the Tennessee Titans. The waiting game was on for Leinart and Cutler, with the former finally selected at #10 by the Arizona Cardinals. It was then that Mike Shanahan struck a deal to move up to #11 and grab Cutler.

Now the QB’s, who’se futures are undeniably linked forever, will meet in the first regualr season meeting between them. Cutler faced bith Young and Leinart in the pre-season with the Broncos winning both games, but this is the first meeting between any of the teams when it really matters.

For his part, Leinart has been impressive since taking over the starting duties from Kurt Warner, and the better Leinart has played the tougher the Cardinals have become. Winners of two straight for the first time in Denny Green’s tenure the Cardinals are playing efficient, smart football. How long has it been since you could say that about the Arizona Cardinals.

A quick look at Leinart’s stats the past 4 games, three of them wins, shows a rookie that is quickly maturing into something special —

86/138, 62.3%, 1056 Yds, 5 TDs, 3 INTs, 90.8 RAT

Jay Cutler also showed some maturation from his first start to his second, and is stats are also impressive for a rookie getting his feet wet —

27/51, 52.9%, 331 Yds, 4 TDs, 2 INTs, 83.0 RAT

You have to imagine there will be a more there when the two QB’s face each other than normal just becuase of all the constant comparisons. Denver has alot more on the line, needing a win to stay in playoff contention. The Cardinals are a very dangerous team for that reason, and present alot of things the Broncos defense doesn’t do very well, like cover high-end receivers.

No matter what, it should be fun watching these two go at it in the first of what will be many meetings over their careers.

Jay Cutler, Matt Leinart, Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals, NFL, NFL Draft

Heading in to Week 15 the playoff picture in the AFC is really no closer to being figured out as it was in Week 1.  Ok, so that was a bit of an exaggeration, but it is definately confusing.  No worries, though, becuase I am here to help you figure it all out.

First, let’s look at what we do know –

1. San Diego(11-2, KC, @SEA, ARI) — San Diego has clinched the AFC West and now sets it’s sights on the #1 seed.  The Chargers can clinch a first round BYE with a win and an Indy loss.  Based on their remaining schedule the road to Miami should go through San Diego.

2. Indianapolis(10-3, CIN, @HOU, MIA) — The Can clinch AFC South with a Win and a Jacksonville Loss.  Colts have lost 3 of 4, and are the wrost team in the Super Bowl Era when it comes to stopping the run.  Jacksonville is red hot and coming fast, but the Colts will hold them off.  Monday Night’s matchup against the Bengals is going to be fun and Denver fans should watch with great interest to how that game plays out.

3. Baltimore(10-3, CLE, @PIT, BUF) — Can clinch the AFC North with a Win and a Cincinnati Loss.  The Ravens continue to amaze me with how they win games, and sit on the cusp of a BYE if the Colts should trip up at all.  An interesting game at Pittsburgh reamins, and I know the Steelers would like nothing more than to throw a wrench in the Ravens’ postseason plans.

4. New England(9-4, HOU, @JAC, @TEN) — Can clinch AFC East with a Win and a NY Jets Loss.  The Pats are really hard to figure out.  They can look great one week, then get shut out by the Dolphins the next.  They’ll no doubt win the AFC East but the chances of a BYE have probably gone out the window.  Tricky games against the Jags and Titans remain and 10-6 is not out of the question.

Of the top 4, only the Chargers have actually clinched a playoff spot.  The other three can do so this week with a win and some help.  It’s my guess that these four will eventually win their divisions and finish in the order above.  That leaves 5 teams for the remaining two playoff spots, including our Broncos.  Remember, if there is a 3-way tie, head to head matchups go out the window and the tiebreaker is conference record, where the Broncos have a big advantage.

    5.  Cincinnati(8-5(6-3), @IND, @DEN, PIT) — Talk about a brutal schedule.  The Bengals are 6-3 in the conference, but that could easily become 6-6 by the end of the season.  The Bengals have been up and down all year, and with word of more arrests coming out of the Queen’s City you have to think it will have some effect.  The matchup in Denver on Christmas Eve could be a win or go home game.

    6.  Jacksonville(8-5(5-4), @TEN, NE, @KC) — The Jags may be the hottest team in the league outside of San Diego and their thrashing of the Colts last wee is proof positive.  They also have 3 conference games left, and it will be key for them to win as many as possible.  None of the games will be easy.  Remember, the Jags were swept by the Houston Texans this season.

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN –

    7.  Denver(7-6(7-4), @ARI, CIN, SF) — Denver is actually in a pretty good position, thanks to the best conference record of the remaing teams.  If the Broncos win out, and the Chiefs lose once, the Broncos are in at 10-6 becuase they would hold all tiebreakers with a win over the Bengals in hand.  Should they lose one, they would still hold all 3-way tiebreakers with any 9-7 teams.  If Denver wants to be seriously considered a playoff threat, however, they need to win these three games and earn a birth.

    8.  Kansas City(7-6(3-6), @SD, @OAK, JAC) — That conference record kills the Chiefs in any tie breaker, and their remaining schedule makes a playoff birth a near impossibility.  San Diego is still playing for a #1 seed, and will be looking to atone for their loss to the Chiefs earlier this year.  Even if you assume the Chiefs would win the next two, they would most likely lose a tie-breaker with another 9-7 team.  The Cheifs do hold one trump card.  If the Chiefs and Broncos end up at 9-7, the Chiefs would get in based on a better Division record(4-2 to 3-3), so the Broncos need to hope there are three 9-7 teams.

    9.  NY Jets(7-6(5-5), @MIN, @MIA, OAK) — The Jets are still alive, but I don’t see them winning more than 1 of their remaining 3 games.  As for tie-breaker possibilities, see above.  The best the Jets can do is a 7-5 conference record, and the Broncos, Bengals and Jags can all do better than that.  It’s an uphill battle for the Jets to get in but 2006 has to be considered a success for Eric Mangini and Jets fans.

  10.  Pittsburgh(6-7(4-6), @CAR, BAL, @CIN) — The Steelers are on life support, but I added them becuase they are still breathing, and they play games that could go a long way towards deciding who gets in and who doesn’t.  The Steelers need a several things to go exactly right, the first of which is the Steelers have to win their remaining games.  At 9-7, they need the Broncos to lose 2 of 3.  After that, it all depends on who loses to whom.  Much to much to get into, but definately something to keep an eye on.

I will update this again next week when we know more, but it should be a fun Week 15 in the AFC.

Ok, so we all know that Jim Tressel is smarter than the rest of us. At least I did, and after news came out of Tressel’s abstention in voting last weekend in the College Football Coach’s Poll you should too. Sure, Tressel is taking a lot of heat for his actions from coaches at schools such as Texas Tech and Texas A&M, guys that coach teams that could only wish that they get the chance to do what Tressel has done and will do. Oh yea, and Lloyd Carr, who called the move “slick”. Even being sarcastic, Carr was right. The move was slick. Slick as slick can be.

Think about it. By voting, you are essentially teeling the world who you want to play, and more importantly who you don’t. No matter what you do you are giving two teams bulletin board fodder. If you vote Florida, Urban Meyer would wait about 1 second before saying Tressel is putting the Gators at #2 becuase he thinks they would be an easier opponent than the Wolverines. If you vote Michigan, you get the saem reaction from Carr, not to mention the backlash in Columbus for giving your hated rival that much respect. You’s also have the entire southern half of the country crying collusion, saying Tressel was only looking out for his conference.

Ya see, a no win situation. By abstaining, Tressel ensured this story would go away in about 15 minutes, leaving the focus of his team on the game at hand. No bulletin board material, no extra motivation for a team that just doesn’t matchup well agaisnt the over-powering Buckeyes.

In a deeper sense, how screwed up is this current bowl system when a coach has to vote, or essentially “choose” the opponent it will play for the championship. Could you imagine any other sport doing that? I won’t argue with the excitement that surrounds college football from early September to early January, but this system simply doesn’t work. The BCS has been in business for nearly 10 years, and it has worked only once, in 2003 when the Buckeyes and Hurricanes were both undefeated and played for the Championship.

As far as Tressel goes, he will continue to be criticized by coaches that couldn’t hold his sweater vest in the locker room. Guys that will never be in the unenviable position Tressel found himself in. But to me, and to all of you, Tressel should be seen as what he is, smarter than all of us for finding a way around this horrible system. Kudos to you Coach Tressel, kudos in deed!

Jim Tressel, Ohio State, Buckeyes, BCS Title Game, Michigan, Florida

I have taken a few days to really think about what I witnessed Sunday Night, and to really, really think about what is happening this season. Before I get into that, I just what to say what a relief it is to hear that Al Wilson appears to be fine and should fully recover. Amazingly, it is being REPORTED that Wilson may even play this Sunday in San Diego. What a lift that would be, but will it be enough?

In other injury news, Cecil Sapp became the latest Bronco to be placed on injured reserve. Sapp suffered a broken leg late in Sunday’s loss to Seattle.

The injuries to this team are really starting to mount, and when you don’t have a lot of depth to begin with it is only a matter of time before they start to have a negative impact on the team.

That leads me to my thoughts on the state of the Denver Broncos today. They are what they are, a 7-5 team on the fringe of making the playoffs. They are alos a team that is 5-5 against competition not named the Oakland Raiders, and a team that has a 3-4 record against opponents with a winning record.

They are a sloppy team, as 5 turnovers last Sunday would demonstrate, but are we to expect anything else from a team filled with undrafted free agents playing large roles? Mike Bell fumbled last Sunday, he was undrafted. Brian Clark fumbled a crucial kick-off last Sunday, he too was undrafted. The lack of talent evaluation on this team is starting to catch up with them. While teams like the Patriots, or Chargers m ake the most of each and every pick, the Broncos have squandered many of them, taking fliers on players they hoped would become something. I call it the “Terrell Davis Effect”. What TDE has done to the talent evaluators of this team, namely Mike Shanahan, is lead them to believe they are smarter than they actually are. Shanny thinks he can find another diamond in the rough, needle in a haystack, or potential hall of famer in the 6th round. Let’s face it, that only happens once, and only if you are extremely lucky.

Special Teams has been a huge deficiency on this teams for years. Why? Becuase our drafts have been lackluster for years. Where do you think Special Teams players come from? They are the rookies/1st year/2nd year players drafted in the middle rounds. We used to succeed there. Ian Gold was a 2nd round pick that played special teams before becoming a starter. Now we don’t have those guys. Becuase of the lack of talent the Broncos are forced to play Al Wilson on Special Teams and look how well that went.

Once again this off-season the Broncos will have a plethera of middle round draft choices. It’s a good thing too, becuase this team has a lot of holes to fill. The Broncos would do themselves a big favor by looking for the best athlete in the draft at the time they are picking, and getting him. An example? How good would Chicago’s Devin Hestor look in the Blue and Orange?

The Broncos used to do a great job of drafting Defensive Lineman, but then failed to lock them up when the time came. Unfortunitely we can not just plug anyone in. That area, more than any other, is also a weakness, and the lack of pressure we get from our front four has killed us when it matters the most.

One area not getting alot of attention is the Offensive Line, and that needs to change. The loss of Matt Lepsis was definitely a blow, but the rest of the line hasn’t played up to it’s reputation either. Tom Nalen is starting to show signs of his age, and George Foster completely lost his job to a guy that didn’t play football for 2 years.

All in all, the team is about where it should be. Where they go form here is anyone’s guess. Youo need only look to last season when the Steelers were 7-5 heading into Week 14, barely hanging on to the playoffs. We all know what they accomplished, 8 straight wins and a Lombardi Trophy. If the Broncos hold the same aspirations they may just have to do the same thing.