The Sports Guru

Guru NFL Week 1 Picks

A rough start for the Guru, as I had the Dolphins over the Steelers 20-16. All looked great until Daunte Culpepper remembered he was Daunte Culpepper. Two horrible and picks and that’s the ballgame. Like a head coach after a loss, I won’t look back, only forward to the rest of my Week 1 picks.

NY Jets +2 ½ @ Tennessee – One team has a new Head Coach, the other and new quarterback. At least the Jets know who their coach is. After having the entire off-season to decide, the Titans still appear to have no idea who they are going to start under center on Sunday. Vince Young, the #3 overall picking the draft looks to be 2 or 3 years away, and Billy Volek hasn’t ran with the opportunity to start. The Titans further muddled the situation by signing Kerry Collins late in camp, and he looks to be the front runner to start. Not good in my eyes. On the Jets’ side, Chad Pennington will try once again to come back from a shoulder injury. New head coach Eric Mangini has began to clean the locker room of the old Jets, bringing in new blood on the O-line and defense. I can’t explain why, but I like the Jets in this spot. I have no confidence in any of the Titan’s QBs and the running back situation seems to be just as confusing. Forget the points, I take the Jets to win the game outright, further plummeting the Titans into the NFL abyss.
NY JETS 24-17

Philadelphia -3 ½ @Houston – Another of the league’s new coaches debuts in Houston, where Gary Kubiak will try to duplicate his success in Denver with the Texans. Kubiak shocked the football world in the draft, going defense(Mario Williams) instead of offense(Reggie Bush) and the heat will be on from the beginning to prove it was the correct choice. In Philly, Donavan McNabb returns to the peace and quiet of the Post-T.O. Eagle locker room. The Eagles were able to get to 3 NFC Championship games without Owens, and I expect Philly to be competitive in 2006. I’m in a giving mood, so throw the points away and take the Eagles.
EAGLES 24-14

Cincinnati +4 ½ @ Kansas City – Talk about a trap game? The Bengals have looked great in the pre-season, while the Chiefs have looked, well, like a Herm Edwards coached team. All of a sudden K.C> has appeared to forget how to play offense and score points. Carson Palmer will get his first lengthy action and how he handles the 3^rd and 4^th quarter will go a long way towards how successful the Bengals will be in 2006. For K.C., Larry Johnson becomes the premier back, and looks like he may threaten the 2000 yard barrier. The loss of Willie Roaf will be huge, but the Chiefs are tough to beat at home at any point of the season. I like the Chiefs to win this game, but the Bengals cover the spread.
CHIEFS 31-28

Denver -3 ½ @ St. Louis – Another season, another starting running back in Denver. Even though Mike Shanahan is trying to keep it quiet all signs are pointing to undrafted rookie Mike Bell getting the nod against the Rams. The Rams are off to a new start of their own, with another new head coach making his debut in Scott Linehan. Linehan has simplified the offense, giving Marc Bulger less to think about and more time to simply react and make good throws. On defense, the Rams brought in former Saints Head Coach Jim Haslett to improve a unit that finished near dead last in the league last season. No doubt the unit will improve as the season goes, but against a great offense like the Broncos this unit will struggle. I like the Broncos to attack the middle of the field with rookie TE Tony Scheffler early, before going outside to Rod Smith and newcomer Javon Walker in the 2^nd half. The Broncos will have no problem scoring points, and the only question in my mind is whether or not the Rams can keep up. Give the points, take the Broncos
Broncos 27-13

Atlanta +5 ½ @ Carolina - Talk about no respect. I know the Falcons struggled in 2005 and missed the playoffs, but I expect big things form Michael Vick and Co. this season. I think the coaching staff finally understands what they have in Vick, and for the Falcons to be successful they need to let Vick be who he is. That said, I am really high on the Panthers this season and really like Carolina. The Panthers added Keyshawn Johnson to partner with Steve Smith and I think both are going to have huge years. The NFC South is one of the toughest divisions in football, and all 4 teams seem to beat each other up, with no real advantage going to the home team. Six points is way too many, but look for the Panthers to win by a FG.
Panthers 24-21

Baltimore @ Tampa Bay -3 ½ — The Steve McNair era in Baltimore begins for real in a tough place, the pirate ship in Tampa. A lot of “experts” have the Ravens as a possible Super Bowl contender, but I really don’t see it. I love McNair, and there is no doubt he is a warrior. But history shows us that veteran quarterbacks that change teams rarely have success at a high level. Besides McNair, there are questions in the running game with Jamal Lewis trying to regain his 2000 yard season form, and Mike Anderson, who is trying to prove that he isn’t just a product of the Broncos system. For Tampa, everyone has fallen head over heels for Chris Simms, and he really looks like he is ready to break out. There may not be a coach out there that is tougher on his QB than John Gruden and Simms, like his father with Bill Parcells, seems to have the personality and mental toughness to deal with it. The Bucs have a solid running game with Cadillac Williams and the passing game is in good hands with Mark Clayton and Joey Galloway, who seems to get better with age. Of course, the Bucs D is the Bucs D and should still be dominant. Give the points, I like Gruden and the Bucs to win easily.
Buccaneers 24-10

Buffalo @ New England -7 ½ — We have seen a theme this year with new head coaches in the NFL. If there is a team that will struggle more with their new coach it is the Buffalo Bills, who have several question marks, especially on offense, where J.P. Losman will again be the starter. Willis McGahee is a great running back, but defenses will stack the line, forcing the Bills to throw to win. I doubt there is a tougher matchup for Buffalo than New England, who enters a season without defending a Super Bowl title for the 1^st time in 3 years. Tom Brady sill plays with a chip on his shoulder, and with the exception of Tedi Bruschi, the defense is healthy and ready to roll. The Patriots are one of my elite teams this season, and after a close first half should put the Bills away in the 2^nd half, give the points, go with the Brady Bunch.
Patriots 30-14

New Orleans @ Cleveland -2 ½ — I have to give credit where it is due. The loss of LeCharles Bentley on the very first play of training camp could have been a devastating blow, a season killer. Instead of sulking, like a lot of Browns’ fans and Cleveland Radio hosts, the team took action, bringing in three different replacements before acquiring Hank Fraley from the Eagles. Fraley is no LeCharles Bentley, but he started for a championship team and should be a worthy fill in. The Saints have looked awful during the pre-season, and unless Reggie Bush can play linebacker and DB, the Saints are really going to struggle in the passing game. With Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow finally back and healthy I think Charlie Frye is going to have some success in the passing game, allowing Reuben Droughns to have success running the ball. I like the Browns to get off to a quick start, and win a low scoring affair.
Browns 16-6

Seattle -3 ½ @ Detroit – This is my Guru Lock of the Week. The defending NFC Champs go on the road to Detroit, where the Lions are trying to remind everyone that there is a pro football team in Detroit. The Lions are going to be improved under Rod Marinelli, who in my opinion will have the greatest success of all the new Head Coaches. Like many of the teams in the Lions’ shoes, Detroit will struggle early in the season, but will be a team no one wants to play in December. The Seahawks have the reigning MVP and might actually be a better team on defense with the addition of Julian Peterson. They are fortunate to catch the Lions early in the season and will take advantage. The spread is ridiculous! Bet the house on this one!
Seahawks 27 – 14

San Francisco @ Arizona -7 ½ - As bad as the Lions-Seahawks spread is, this spread is equally tough. New stadium, new star player, sellout crowd, Alex Smith the opposing QB. Gotta like the Cards. They still have issues on the offensive line, and the defense will be a work in progress all season, but I was really impressed with the Cardinals during the preseason and Kurt Warner looks like he has found the form that won him a Super Bowl and League MVP. What the Cards lack in the trences, they gain two-fold in skill positions with Edgerrin James, Anquon Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. More weapons than the 49’ers can cover. The 49’ers are still a couple of years away from even thinking about competing and the atmosphere and emotion will be tough for Smith to overcome. The NFL schedule makers seemed to do the Cards a favor, allowing them to get off on the right foot in their new digs. Give the points, go with the Cardinals.
Cardinals 34-17

Chicago @ Green Bay +3 ½ - The downward spiral of Brett Favre has been long and painful to watch. I am still not certain Brett is convinced he wants to be playing, and if the past couple of seasons has proved anything it’s Favre is not a good leader of men. He is going to force the organization to bench him with despicable decisions and horrible turnovers. A trade by the deadline is not out of the question, and if not Favre will find himself on the bench by Week 8. The Bears have some QB questions of their own, with Rex Grossman being handed the starting job while proving nothing on the field. He will be pushed hard by Brian Griese and if the Bears offense struggles early in the season there could be a change there as well. The defense might be the best in the league and will carry the Bears again which could cause some locker room issues. I think the Bears squeek by, but this game is a lot closer than most think. Take the points.
Bears 17-16

Dallas +2 ½ @ Jacksonville – Dallas is getting a field goal? Love It!! All the B.S. that surrounded the Cowboys in the pre-season ends as the games start to count for real. Sure, T.O. is what he is, but he wants to prove a little something-something to everyone, and lay claim to the “Greatest Receiver in the Game” claim. Drew Bledsoe has looked incredible in the pre-season, and Terry Glenn seems rejuvenated with the arrival of Owens. The Cowboy defense is finally where the Tuna wants it and will cause problems for the Jags all day. Speaking of Jacksonville, they may have been the worst 12-4 team in history last season and the playoffs showed as much. One of those teams that might be better with their back-up than they are with their starter, the Jags will need to rely on their defense to get it done. While decent, the defense lacks the star power to dominate games. Much like the city they represent, the Jags are a nice team, but nothing special, and nothing worth getting excited over. Dallas gets the points, Dallas gets the win.
Cowboys 24-13

Indianapolis @ NY Giants +3 ½ — It’s taken 3 seasons, but the first matchup between the NFL’s favorite brothers takes place in the Meadowlands on Sunday Night. Manning v. Manning. Imagine growing up as Peyton Manning’s little brother…You know Eli wants to pound the Colts into submission and prove he is a big time QB as well. Peyton has his own questions, as the Colts begin their quest to finally get to a Super Bowl. They do it without Edgerrin James, who now reside in the Valley of the Sun, and will need to find out who can provide them some running game. There is a way to beat the Colts, and the Steelers showed the league last season. The Steelers were able to get significant pressure on Manning without sending extra people. Easier said than done, since what you need is the personnel to do it. With Strahan, Umenyiora and rookie Mathias Kiwanuka the Giants have the personnel. And with little threat of a running game the Giants D will be pinning their ears back. The Giants, on the other hand, have a running game, and it has become a two-headed monster. Tiki Barber seems to be getting better with age, and Brandon Jacobs has a deadly combination of size and speed. Eli has plenty of weapons outside as well, and I really think the emotion of playing in New York on the eve of the 9/11 anniversary will carry the Giants. A loss wouldn’t be a bad thing for the Colts, seeing how they handled all the undefeated talk last season. Give me the points, give me the win.
Giants 31-27

There ya have it. I hop I win you a lot of money. Look out on Monday for my MNF picks. Enjoy your Football Sunday!

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