The Sports Guru

Projected Record

10-6, 1st Place AFC North

Projected Schedule W/L
Miami                        (W)
@Jacksonville            (L)
Cincinnati                  (W)
@San Diego              (L)
Kansas City               (W)
@Atlanta                    (W)
@Oakland                 (L)
Denver                      (L)
New Orleans               (W)
@Cleveland                 (W)
@Baltimore                 (W)
Tampa Bay                  (W)
Cleveland                    (W)
@Carolina                   (L)
Baltimore                    (W)
@Cincinnati                 (L)

It took 25 years, but the Steelers finally produced “One for the Thumb” in 2005.  Seemingly coming out of nowhere, the Steelers reeled off 6 straight wins, including 3 road playoff games to win their first championship under Head Coach Bill Cowher.  It was a great sports story, with future Hall of Famer Jerome Bettis going back home to Detroit, ending his career at the top of his profession.  After several near misses, Cowher was able to silence critics and finally win the big one.  Ben Roethlisberger became the youngest quarterback to start a Super Bowl and Hines Ward won the Super Bowl MVP, not bad for a guy that played quarterback in college.  There have been questions since then, starting with the Bettis retirement.  Then 1st Round pick Santonio Holmes had run-ins with the law.  Ben Roethlisberger was seriously injured in a motorcycle accident.  And most recently, questions about Cowher’s future with the team has begun the surface.  Repeating as Super Bowl Champ is hard enough, and when added to all the off-field distractions of this off-season, it may be impossible.

Team Strengths – It hasn’t changed in 40 years in Pittsburgh, it’s the defense.  The Steelers are going to play hard nosed defense, hit you hard, and force you to do what you aren’t comfortable doing as an offense.  It all starts in the middle, where DT Casey Hampton mans the all important nose tackle position in the 3-4.  With Hampton clogging up the middle, LB’s Joey Porter, Larry Foote, Clarke Haggins and James Farrier are able to run free all over the field smashing unsuspecting receivers or overloading an offensive line, getting to the quarterback unabated.  It that isn’t enough S Troy Palamalu is roaming the secondary, often playing like a 5th linebacker, creating havoc in offensive gameplans. This unit returns largely unchanged, and as long as Bill Cowher is the Head Coach the style of play won’t change either.  Another common denominator of the Steelers for the past 4 decades is a dominant running game.  The offensive line is one of the best in football year in, year out, and that doesn’t figure to change.  There is some question as to how the running game will produce, wothout Bettis in the lineup.

Team Weaknesses - Over Confidence.  Defending champions rarely have many weaknesses.  The Steelers head into the season sky-high after the way they played in the playoffs last season and for good reason.  What they need to be careful of is living in the past.  Last year is last year, and it’s over.  Every team on the schedule will be gunning to beat the Steelers, and after celebrating a championship the team is a little behind in their preperation.  Duce Staley will be called upon to fill the role of Bettis, but durability is a big question mark.  Bettis was a huge influence in the locker room as well, a loss that won’t be replaced as eaisly.  The loss of WR Antwan Randel El will also effect the Steelers ability to surprise opponents and someone will have to step up to become the big play threat opposite Hines Ward.

Best Case Scenario – The Steelers hit rewind and re-play the 2004 season.  It can’t get much better than that.  Seriously, Ben Roethlisberger can no longer rely on the leadership of Bettis and Randel El and will need to become a more vocal leader in the Tom Brady mold.  With rookies like Santonio Holmes causing trouble off the field Ben needs to step in a get these guy in gear.  The Steelers need to stay hungry and somehow keep the “us against the world” mentality they used late last season.  The Steelers play on attitude and toughness, and they’ll need every bit of it.  Ask any player that has won a Super Bowl and they’ll tell you to repeat is alot tougher than to actually win it the first time.  If the Steelers can avoid the post-Super Bowl doldrums they’ll be right there in the end.

Worst Case Scenario  -  After New England won their first Super Bowl they came back and went 9-7, missing the playoffs entirely.  Carolina went to the Super Bowl 3 years ago, and missed the playoffs the next season.  The Eagles missed the playoffs last season after going to the Super Bowl.  It happens, alot.  The Steelers are in a vulnerable position.  They are transitioning at several spots, at running back, receiver, safety, all positions where the team is goiong to need to find someone to step in a make plays.  If they do not the Steelers could struggle.  The teams around the Steelers in the AFC North have improved as well, with Cincinnati and Baltimore looking to make playoff runs as well.  Off the field distractions could also derail the season, so the Steelers are going to need to keep their focus on the field and not on Cowher’s contract status.

My Opinion - It is tough to repeat in any sport.  It might be toughest in the NFL where the economic model vies to create parody.  Cowher and the Steelers had worked for 15 years to figure out how to win their first tite together and will have only 8 months to figure out how to defend that title.  That, coupled with the toughness of their schedule, and the off-field distractions, will be the undoing of the Steelers.  Big Ben has yet to take a step back and without Bettis and Randel El this just might be the year.  I can’t put my finger on it but I think the Steelers are going to struggle a bit in 2006.  I would not be surprised if they missed the playoff entirely, but Cowher is too good of a coach to let things slide to far. 10-6 should be enough to win the North, get the Steelers back into the playoffs, before they lose in a rematch with the Broncos.

10-6, 1st Place AFC North

You could see the look on his face as he put the Green Jacket on rival Phil Mickelson’s shoulders.  Sure, he was disappointed he didn’t play better, that he didn’t win a 5th Masters, but there was something else.  The look of a son who feels he has let a father down.  The look of a son who knew he let an opportunity slip away that he may never have again, to celebrate a Major Championship with the man that taight him so much about the game of golf and the game of life. 

A year prior it was Woods who had won his 4th Green Jacket, and mentioned publically for the first time that his dad was sick, too sick to come to the course and celebrate with him, to give him the big bear hug that had become a constant betwen father and son after a Major win.  Woods went on to win his 2nd British Open at St. Andrews later that summer, ironically in the event that included the last competitive round for than man he is chasing in the record books, Jack Nicklaus. 

The strain on Woods was apparent, however, as his father became more and more ill.  He was still winning, but he was faltering at times as well.  Mistakes on the couorse were getting to him and lingering.  The focus that had become he trademark was being shaken, as his mind was 1000’s of miles away with his dad.

The culmination was the 2006 Masters, where Woods knew it would probably be the last time he played a Major with his father alive.  He played well, but not well enough, missing makable putts on the back-9 to fall to Mickelson.  Just a couple weeks later, on May 3, Earl Woods passed away.  Tiger had lost his best friend and secluded himself, awy from the public, away from the media, away from the game he loved.  He didn’t pick up a club or 8 weeks.

It was probably 1 week too long, when Woods returned for the U.S. Open.  He didn’t make the cut.  Questions began to rain down.  Was he in a slump?  Could he re-focus and get his game back?  Could he ever be as dominate without his father there to support and mentor him?  It didn’t take him long to answer those questions.

I had a theory after the U.S. Open.  The emotional toll that having a sick father took on Tiger was finally lifted, and after grieving, Tiger would come back, better than ever,  Better than in 1999-2001 when he won 6 out of 8 Majors at one point and even winning the “Tiger Slam”.  Some thought I was crazy, that the ‘field’ had caught up to Woods and it was ‘Hefty Lefty’ Mickelson primed to make a big run.  Some even thought he was the best golfer in the world…

Tsk tsk…After the failure at Winged Foot Tiger has done nothing but win 3 out of the last 4 tournaments he has entered, finishing 2nd in the other.  Two of those were Majors, and all three were going away.  He has that look in his eye again.  He can focus on golf again, not wondering if he is going to get ‘the call’.   Sure, he wants his father back, and woould give up golf for it, but he can’t.  The best way for him to pay tribute to his father is to win, and win big.  His focus is renewed, his mind clear.  The rest of the golf world had better watch out. 

Woods now has 12 Majors, and he is 12-0 when he is leading or has a share of the lead after 54 holes.  The countdown to 18 and beyond now begins.  Using his ratio of winning 12 of his first 40 Majors(3/10), Woods would tie the record in 5 years, presumably at the Masters, the sight of his first Major Victory, and his first bear hug.  Odds are, that would all but make up for the disappointment felt at Augusta in April.

The Denver Broncos opened their home schedule taking on the Tennessee Titans in pre-season game number 2. Looking sharp on both sides of the ball in their 35-10 win, the Dever was able to smooth out a lot of the rough edges from their loss to Detroit last week. Here are my 5 Observations from the game….

1. Jake Plummer is not ready to give up the keys to the car just yet. For the first time in his career Plummer has someone in the rear-view mirror in rookie Jay Cutler. All the “experts” seem to think that Cutler will over for Plummer in 2007. I’m not so sure. No doubt that Cutler has been impressive, but Plummer has looked equally sharp and seems energized by the challenge Culter has provided. These “experts” seem to think that Shanahan’s patience with Plummer ended after a poor performance in the AFC Championship Game. Not so fast my friend. As long as Plummer is playing at a high level and the team is winning Plummer will lead the way.

2. The D-Line is doing what it has to do. One of the weaknesses of the Broncos last seaosn was the inability of the defense to generate any pressure on opposing QB’s without bring extra defenders or blitzing. That put alot of pressure on the DB’s. So far this pre-season the defensive line has done a great job getting to the quarterback without blitzing. Denver is doing this primarily with backups, with 1/2 of their defensive line out with injury. Once Gerrard Warren and Courtney Brown return the unit should be that much more effective. This bodes well for the team in 2006.

3. Both Bell’s are doing the job. In a perfect world Mike Shanahan would like top have a primary back get a majority of the carries. Unfortunitely for Shanny, he has two guys that together equal the type of back he wants. Rookie Mike Bell has been annointed the starter. He runs hard everytime he has the ball and is quick to the hole. He had a couple of big runs during the game, but ended up being caught from behind, once by a linebacker. Tatum Bell, on the other hand, has the breakaway speed and would have went house on at least one of the runs that Mike Bell was caught. The knock on T. Bell, however, is the lack of toughness in his running. He doesn’t get many yards after first contact, and has shown durability issues as well. Another newbie in camp, Damien Nash, looked impressive as well, before getting hurt. Needless to say, it’s status quo for the running game in Denver.

4. Rod Smith is as good as ever, even at 36 years old. Smith saw his first action of 2006 and looked crisp and quick. There were two times in the game that Smith was lined up against Titans DB ‘Pac-Man’ Jones, a 1st Round pick last season. Both times Smith beat Jones and made plays to extend drives. Smith is probably 2-1000 yard seasons away from the Hall-of-Fame, and with the way he is looking now can probably go close to 40. Staying with the receivers, a position of weakness the past few seasons has suddenly become a strength for Denver, with multiple players making an impact. David Kircus, Todd Devoe, and TE Tony Scheffler have shown they could be dangerous weapons during the season.

5. A quick note about the Titans. Here is a team that had high pick in the first two rounds in the draft. Right now neither of their selections look like they are going to make an impact in 2006. I am just going to say it, Vince Young is not even close to being ready to start in the NFL. After watching Young he looks to be 2 years away, at least. His feet are way too “happy” and he is too quick to take off running. That was good enough in college, where every play he ran was some sort of option, but in the NFL it will get him killed. In both games Young has taken hard shots that can severely injure him. Young is going to have to learn to be more of a pocket QB, similar to Steve McNair, Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick, who is still trying to learn it. LenDale White looked worse than Young, and with two starting running backs already on the team the Titans wasted a pick that could have gone to better use. It is going to be a long season in Tennessee.

Projected Record

10-6, 1st Place NFC North

Projected Schedule W/L
@Green Bay (L)
Detroit (W)
@Minnesota (W)
Seattle (W)
Buffalo (W)
@Arizona (L)
San Francisco (W)
Miami (W)
@NY Giants (L)
@NY Jets (W)
@New England (L)
Minnesota (W)
@St. Louis (L)
Tampa Bay (W)
@Detroit (L)
Green Bay (W)

Rex Grossman was drafted in 2004 to be the Bears’ quarterback of the future. Things didn’t go as planned for Grossman after he was hurt early in the year. The Bears struggled to a 5-11 record that season, Head Coach Lovie Smith’s first with the team. Heading into 2005, Grossman was once again primed to lead the Bears. Once again, Grossman was beset by injuries, missing 14 games. This time, however, the Bears were able to overcome the loss, going 11-5, and producing the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year in Brian Urlacher. Heading into 2006, Grossman will once again try to lead the Bear’s deep into the playoffs, but this time the Bears find themselves better prepared to deal with his loss.

Team Strengths – Defense, defense, defense. The Bears D was dominate last season, until it counted most in the playoffs. The last two times the Bears have made the postseason they were led by their defense, but ironically, it was defense that let them down both times. Urlacher anchors a fast, hard hitting D that beckons to times gone by in Chicago. It will fall to the defense again of the Bears if they are going to make a run in 2006. On offense, the Bears do a great job of funning the football, and have a three headed monster in Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson, and Adrian Peterson. Mushin Muhammad is an effective receiver, if there is someone to get the ball to him.

Team Weaknesses - It has been the quarterback position that has plagued the Bears the past 2 seasons. Injuries to Grossman have forced the Bears to play unproven players, such as Craig Krenzel in 2004 and Kyle Orton last season. The Bears protected themselves this year by bringing in Brian Griese to backup Grossman. Griese is a steady, if unspectaculr, quaterback that at least give the Bears some semblance of a passing attack. If Grossman falters, Griese will be there waiting. If anything was proven in the playoffs last season it was the Bears D was susceptable to the big play. Steve Smith of Carolina burned the Bear’s secondary time and again, and if Mike Brown’s foot injury is serious the Bear’s may stryggle again against the pass.


Best Case Scenario – Improved play at the quarterback posistion takes the pressure of the defense. The Bears have some weapons on offense but need a QB that can get the ball downfield and stretch defenses. If that happens, the running tandem of Jones, Benson and Peterson will be highly effective keeping drives alive and keeping the defense rested on the bench. A weak division plays right into the Bears’ hands and a home playoff game is not out of the question.

Worst Case Scenario - If Grossman and Griese are ineffective it couls be deja-vue for the Bears in 2006. The Defense is good enough to beat mediocre teams during the regular season, but the postseason is a different story. Injuries to the DB’s will make the D vulnerable to attack downfield as seen last season. The running-by-commitee worked last season but all three want to be “the MAN” and that could cause problems. Urlacher has had injury problems in the past and they need him on the field to be successful

My Opinion - The Bears are one of the more intriguing teams in 2006. They possess alot of talent but will only go as far as the QB of choice takes them. Right now that guy is Rex Grossman, but he is untested and hasn’t played nearly enough for the Bears to get a true indication of his potential. They did the right thing to bring in some protection in Griese, but he has been enigmatic at best, never proving that he could lead a team far into the playoffs. That said, Griese brings more to the table and is much more consistent than Grossman, and the wondow of opportunity on this group is starting to close. It will be Griese that will be the starting QB of this team, if not by Week 1, then soon after.

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