The Sports Guru

Projected Record

12-4, 1st Place AFC EAST

Projected Schedule W/L

Buffalo (W)
@NY Jets (W)
Denver (W)
@Cincinnati (L)
Miami (W)
@Buffalo (W)
@Minnesota (W)
Indianapolis (L)
NY Jets (W)
@Green Bay (W)
Chicago (W)
Detroit (W)
@Miami (L)
Houston (W)
@Jacksonville (L)
@Tennessee (W)

Can a team still be successful, still be elite, while going through transition? That’s what the New England Patriots are trying to do. Injuries, age, and attrition are all taking their toll on the Pats, who were knocked out of the playoffs last season in the 2nd round after winning back-to-back Super Bowls. During the off-season they said good-bye to the likes of Tom Ashworth on the O-Line and team leader Willie McGinest on defense. They have granted leading receiver Deion Branch permission to seek a trade, to find some sort of resoluton to the hold-out that has lasted all off-season. The one constant, however is #12 behind center. As long asa Tom Brady is on the field the Patriots have a chance, and in 2006 it is more than a fighting chance. The fact that the Pats are #4 on my Guru Power Rnakings should show you how much I like the Pats this year, even with all the changes. The Dolphins are tough, the schedule is tough, but Brady and the Pats are a little tougher.

Team Strengths – There are two big strengths the Pats have that most other teams do not. The Head Coach, Bill Belichick might be the best coach in football. He has won 3 Super Bowls the past 5 season and has done it with a patchwork defense on more than on occasion. He has been able to get role players and stars alike to buy into a team first mentality and has not given in to players like Branch who have gone against the grain. It goes a long way when your team trusts you and there is a lot of trust in the locker room. The coach can’t plpay so you better have a strong quarterback and again the Pats have one of the best in Tom Brady. Since being drafted in the 6th Round Brady has been playing with a chip on his shoulder that even with the success hasn’t left. The best of the best have skills that go beyond physical ability. They have a fire that burns, a desire to be the best and the expectation that everyone around them be the best. Brady is like that, and his fire raises the play of everyone around him. The Patriots may also have the best back-field tandem in the League, with Corey Dillon and Rookie Lawrence Maroney. Both should see alot of action in order to keep Dillon fresh the entire season.

Team Weaknesses - You know things are good when the biggest question mark on the team is at kicker, but when you are trying to replace a future Hall-of-Famer it has to be up there. The in-camp batter between Matrin Grammatica and rookie Stephen Gostkowski was decided last week when the team decided to go with the rookie. He has looked good during the pre-season, successful on every kick so far. The pre-season is a different animal than the regular season or Playoffs for that matter, so it will be interesting to see what happens the first time Gostkowski needs to make a kick to win or tie a game. The Defensive backfield is still a question mark to me with Rodney Harrison trying to comeback from a brutal knee injury suffered against Pittsburgh last year. The one thing all the injuries the past few years have done for the Pats is give alot of those young guys a ton of playing time. That has created depth, even though no one stands out as a star. Injuries during the pre-season has raised questions about the linebackers as well, with Tedi Bruschi nursing a wrist injury, but Junior Seau, talked out of retirement after 3 days, looked great in his first action and can be a sleeper if he can stay healthy and be used correctly.


Best Case Scenario – When winning championships becomes the norm only a victory in Super Bowl XLI can be conseidered as best case. I would really like to see this team stay healthy all season to find out just how good they are. That said I really think they need Deion Branch on the field in a ‘Flying Elvis’ helmet in order for the Pats to get there. The tandem of Maroney and Dillon are going to be agreat 1-2 punch for the running game and Ben Watson needs to step up and become a viable option in the passing game. Brady has the ability to put up great numbers and this season may the year it happens. If Bruschi can come back healthy and Seau be used in certain situations he could be a force for the defense.

Worst Case Scenario - Anyway you look at it, if Branch actually gets traded it will be a hit to the offense. Brady has said as much to the press, and I think deep down Belichick knows this as well. If he leaves, aging Troy Brown once again becomes the first option and injuries have plpagued him the past few years as well. Defensively, they have depth but there are a couple of guys the Pats cannot lose if they are going to win big. Tedi Bruschi needs to be on the field and he needs Richard Seymour on the line in front of him. Both players are difference and can change the course of a game with one play. The head to head matchups with Miami and Indianapolis will be fun to watch and Week 3 primetime against my Broncos should be fun as well.

My Opinion - In my reality there are 5 teams that have a realistic chance to win the Super Bowl. The Patriots are definitely one of those teams, IF Deion Branch gets on the field. Make no mistake, the Pats will be a competitive playoff team without Branch, but they are a Super Bowl caliber team with him. I really think Branch is out there seeing what the market holds for his services and will end up signing an extension with the Patriots. The way the situation is being handled insures neither side loses face and that a solution can be found amicably. On the field I expect Tom Brady to have one of his biggest seasons yet, and with Maroney and Dillon the Patriots will be one of the top running teams in the league. On defense, I expect more of the same from the Pats, a ‘bend but don’t break’ mentality that relies on the big play and a mistake from the opponent. I like the Patriots to win the AFC East and reach the AFC Championship Game, before losing to the eventual Super Bowl Champs. Who’s that, you ask? Patience, patience….

Technorati Tags: New England Patriots, Tom Brady, NFL Preview, Patriots Preview, 2006 Patroits Preview, Corey Dillon, Deion Branch, Bill Belichick

Here are 5 Observations about the Broncos-Texans Game last night:

1.  Javon Walker Is Healthy and Ready To Go  -  He didn’t catch a pass the first 2 weeks of the preseason, but rebounded nicely last night with 3 catches for 41 yards.  He was hit hard and also made some nice cuts on the knee.  One thing I observed is Walker is not wearing a brace of any kind on the knee, and that makes me a little nervous.  It would have been nice for Plummer and Walker to hook up on the 3rd down play at the goal line, but that will come in time.  It was nice to see production from the #2 receiver.

2.  Consistent Pass Rush From the D-Line is Still A Concern  -  A goal of the Broncos defense this season is to get more consistent pass rush from the front 4, and not blitz as much.  So far this preseason there have been mixed results.  There are some nice players, but most are journeymen and are consistently inconsistent.  There are 2 starters that haven’t played yet, so there is a chance at improvement, but because they are undersized they can wear down as the game goes on.  It has happened each game so far and with Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, L.T., etc on the schedule the front 4 is going to be a key to the Broncos success.

3.  It’s Official, Jay Cutler Is Going To Be A Star  -  I know it’s the pre-season, and I know he has been playing against 2nd string competition, but there are things I have seen with this guy that you can’t teach, that can’t be learned.  He has the intangibles that great players have.  The moment is not too big for him, the stage not too bright.  He can feel the pressure coming, slide to the side, and fire a dart right into the chest of a receiver.  Jake Plummer is the quarterback of the Broncos and will be as long as he is playing at a high level, but Cutler is the future and the future looks bright!

4.  Ron Dayne Might Be The Odd-Man Out  -  Cedric Cobbs has looked solid during the pre-season, and Ron Dayne has Turf-Toe.  I have never been a big Dayne fan, back to his days at Wisconsin, but I thought he could be a good fit with the Broncos.  A big misconception about Dayne is that he is a power runner.  He is not.  He is a big guy, no doubt, but he is not a big, bruising back that will get the tough yards.  With Mike and Tatum Bell being used for the speed and flash, it’s Cobbs that is the power back, in the mold of Mike Anderson or Reuben Dorughns.  If today were cut day I would be surprised if Dayne made the team.  If he does make it, don’t be surprised if you see Dayne on some sort of PUP list soon.

5.  Gary Kubiak Has the Texans Headed In The Right Direction  -  A quick not about old friend Gary Kubiak.  I was very surprised with how hard the Texans played last night.  True, both team were vanillia in alot that they did, but the Texan defense was flying around and laying the wood on people.  The Broncos had a short field and were held to a field goal and scored their only 1st team TD after a penalty.  Kubiak did a great job surrounding himself with solid coaches, namely former Packer coach Mike Sherman, who will bring a different look to the offense than simply a Bronco look.  It was a long time coming for Gary, but I think he is a good fit in his hometown and will prove to be a great choice.

Technorati Tags: Denver Broncos, Mike Shanahan, Jake Plummer, NFL Pre-Season, Gary Kiubiak, Tatum Bell, Mike Bell, Ron Dayne, Houston Texans