The Sports Guru

Projected Record

10-6, 1st Place AFC North

Projected Schedule W/L
Miami                        (W)
@Jacksonville            (L)
Cincinnati                  (W)
@San Diego              (L)
Kansas City               (W)
@Atlanta                    (W)
@Oakland                 (L)
Denver                      (L)
New Orleans               (W)
@Cleveland                 (W)
@Baltimore                 (W)
Tampa Bay                  (W)
Cleveland                    (W)
@Carolina                   (L)
Baltimore                    (W)
@Cincinnati                 (L)

It took 25 years, but the Steelers finally produced “One for the Thumb” in 2005.  Seemingly coming out of nowhere, the Steelers reeled off 6 straight wins, including 3 road playoff games to win their first championship under Head Coach Bill Cowher.  It was a great sports story, with future Hall of Famer Jerome Bettis going back home to Detroit, ending his career at the top of his profession.  After several near misses, Cowher was able to silence critics and finally win the big one.  Ben Roethlisberger became the youngest quarterback to start a Super Bowl and Hines Ward won the Super Bowl MVP, not bad for a guy that played quarterback in college.  There have been questions since then, starting with the Bettis retirement.  Then 1st Round pick Santonio Holmes had run-ins with the law.  Ben Roethlisberger was seriously injured in a motorcycle accident.  And most recently, questions about Cowher’s future with the team has begun the surface.  Repeating as Super Bowl Champ is hard enough, and when added to all the off-field distractions of this off-season, it may be impossible.

Team Strengths – It hasn’t changed in 40 years in Pittsburgh, it’s the defense.  The Steelers are going to play hard nosed defense, hit you hard, and force you to do what you aren’t comfortable doing as an offense.  It all starts in the middle, where DT Casey Hampton mans the all important nose tackle position in the 3-4.  With Hampton clogging up the middle, LB’s Joey Porter, Larry Foote, Clarke Haggins and James Farrier are able to run free all over the field smashing unsuspecting receivers or overloading an offensive line, getting to the quarterback unabated.  It that isn’t enough S Troy Palamalu is roaming the secondary, often playing like a 5th linebacker, creating havoc in offensive gameplans. This unit returns largely unchanged, and as long as Bill Cowher is the Head Coach the style of play won’t change either.  Another common denominator of the Steelers for the past 4 decades is a dominant running game.  The offensive line is one of the best in football year in, year out, and that doesn’t figure to change.  There is some question as to how the running game will produce, wothout Bettis in the lineup.

Team Weaknesses - Over Confidence.  Defending champions rarely have many weaknesses.  The Steelers head into the season sky-high after the way they played in the playoffs last season and for good reason.  What they need to be careful of is living in the past.  Last year is last year, and it’s over.  Every team on the schedule will be gunning to beat the Steelers, and after celebrating a championship the team is a little behind in their preperation.  Duce Staley will be called upon to fill the role of Bettis, but durability is a big question mark.  Bettis was a huge influence in the locker room as well, a loss that won’t be replaced as eaisly.  The loss of WR Antwan Randel El will also effect the Steelers ability to surprise opponents and someone will have to step up to become the big play threat opposite Hines Ward.

Best Case Scenario – The Steelers hit rewind and re-play the 2004 season.  It can’t get much better than that.  Seriously, Ben Roethlisberger can no longer rely on the leadership of Bettis and Randel El and will need to become a more vocal leader in the Tom Brady mold.  With rookies like Santonio Holmes causing trouble off the field Ben needs to step in a get these guy in gear.  The Steelers need to stay hungry and somehow keep the “us against the world” mentality they used late last season.  The Steelers play on attitude and toughness, and they’ll need every bit of it.  Ask any player that has won a Super Bowl and they’ll tell you to repeat is alot tougher than to actually win it the first time.  If the Steelers can avoid the post-Super Bowl doldrums they’ll be right there in the end.

Worst Case Scenario  -  After New England won their first Super Bowl they came back and went 9-7, missing the playoffs entirely.  Carolina went to the Super Bowl 3 years ago, and missed the playoffs the next season.  The Eagles missed the playoffs last season after going to the Super Bowl.  It happens, alot.  The Steelers are in a vulnerable position.  They are transitioning at several spots, at running back, receiver, safety, all positions where the team is goiong to need to find someone to step in a make plays.  If they do not the Steelers could struggle.  The teams around the Steelers in the AFC North have improved as well, with Cincinnati and Baltimore looking to make playoff runs as well.  Off the field distractions could also derail the season, so the Steelers are going to need to keep their focus on the field and not on Cowher’s contract status.

My Opinion - It is tough to repeat in any sport.  It might be toughest in the NFL where the economic model vies to create parody.  Cowher and the Steelers had worked for 15 years to figure out how to win their first tite together and will have only 8 months to figure out how to defend that title.  That, coupled with the toughness of their schedule, and the off-field distractions, will be the undoing of the Steelers.  Big Ben has yet to take a step back and without Bettis and Randel El this just might be the year.  I can’t put my finger on it but I think the Steelers are going to struggle a bit in 2006.  I would not be surprised if they missed the playoff entirely, but Cowher is too good of a coach to let things slide to far. 10-6 should be enough to win the North, get the Steelers back into the playoffs, before they lose in a rematch with the Broncos.

10-6, 1st Place AFC North

You could see the look on his face as he put the Green Jacket on rival Phil Mickelson’s shoulders.  Sure, he was disappointed he didn’t play better, that he didn’t win a 5th Masters, but there was something else.  The look of a son who feels he has let a father down.  The look of a son who knew he let an opportunity slip away that he may never have again, to celebrate a Major Championship with the man that taight him so much about the game of golf and the game of life. 

A year prior it was Woods who had won his 4th Green Jacket, and mentioned publically for the first time that his dad was sick, too sick to come to the course and celebrate with him, to give him the big bear hug that had become a constant betwen father and son after a Major win.  Woods went on to win his 2nd British Open at St. Andrews later that summer, ironically in the event that included the last competitive round for than man he is chasing in the record books, Jack Nicklaus. 

The strain on Woods was apparent, however, as his father became more and more ill.  He was still winning, but he was faltering at times as well.  Mistakes on the couorse were getting to him and lingering.  The focus that had become he trademark was being shaken, as his mind was 1000’s of miles away with his dad.

The culmination was the 2006 Masters, where Woods knew it would probably be the last time he played a Major with his father alive.  He played well, but not well enough, missing makable putts on the back-9 to fall to Mickelson.  Just a couple weeks later, on May 3, Earl Woods passed away.  Tiger had lost his best friend and secluded himself, awy from the public, away from the media, away from the game he loved.  He didn’t pick up a club or 8 weeks.

It was probably 1 week too long, when Woods returned for the U.S. Open.  He didn’t make the cut.  Questions began to rain down.  Was he in a slump?  Could he re-focus and get his game back?  Could he ever be as dominate without his father there to support and mentor him?  It didn’t take him long to answer those questions.

I had a theory after the U.S. Open.  The emotional toll that having a sick father took on Tiger was finally lifted, and after grieving, Tiger would come back, better than ever,  Better than in 1999-2001 when he won 6 out of 8 Majors at one point and even winning the “Tiger Slam”.  Some thought I was crazy, that the ‘field’ had caught up to Woods and it was ‘Hefty Lefty’ Mickelson primed to make a big run.  Some even thought he was the best golfer in the world…

Tsk tsk…After the failure at Winged Foot Tiger has done nothing but win 3 out of the last 4 tournaments he has entered, finishing 2nd in the other.  Two of those were Majors, and all three were going away.  He has that look in his eye again.  He can focus on golf again, not wondering if he is going to get ‘the call’.   Sure, he wants his father back, and woould give up golf for it, but he can’t.  The best way for him to pay tribute to his father is to win, and win big.  His focus is renewed, his mind clear.  The rest of the golf world had better watch out. 

Woods now has 12 Majors, and he is 12-0 when he is leading or has a share of the lead after 54 holes.  The countdown to 18 and beyond now begins.  Using his ratio of winning 12 of his first 40 Majors(3/10), Woods would tie the record in 5 years, presumably at the Masters, the sight of his first Major Victory, and his first bear hug.  Odds are, that would all but make up for the disappointment felt at Augusta in April.