The Sports Guru

Being careful not to hurt my arm patting myself on the back, but when discussing the Top 5 Head Coaches I mentioned the pending situation involving Steelers’ Head Coach Bill Cowher.  I mentioned the fact that he has recently built a home outside Raleigh, North Carolina, and that his contract runs out at the end of next season(2007).  I summized that this could be Cowher’s last season in Steel-Town.

That speculation is starting to gain momentum, with the announcement yesterday that negotiations between Cowher and the Team are breaking off until after the season.  That alone isn’t shocking.  Both the coach and the team need to focus on trying to repeat.  It is a concern, however, that Cowher isn’t really doing anything to calm the rough waters.  After a 6-10 season in 2003 Cowher let it be known that he was interested at looking at his coaching future on a year by year basis.  Just prior to the start of training camp Cowher stated that he was unsure he would coach after this season.

“There’s been a lot of speculation about my future, I’m here to say once again that it’s purely that, speculation,” Cowher said. “I don’t like talking about the contract because we’re in camp. I love coaching football, I love coaching here and there’s been a lot of speculation and I’m going to leave it at that.

“I can’t control the future — again, that takes two sides — but I do have two years left on my contract, contrary to what some people think. And that’s all I want to talk about it,” he said.  Cowher was reportedly upset when former Steeler Jerome Bettis came out last week and predicted this was Cowher’s last season in Pittsburgh.

Sure, he loves coaching the Steelers, and no other coach is as perfect a fit than Cowher is in Pittsburgh.  But the fact remains, it is still Pittsburgh.  The Rooney family pays Cowher well, Top-15 in the league, but no where near the likes of Bill Parcells, Joe Gibbs, Andy Reid, Tony Dungy, Jeff Fisher.  Even Nick Saban came into the NFL making more than Cowher. 

You can argue that Cowher is the best coach in the league right now.  His .629 winning percentage is higher than Shanahan(.622), Bill Parcells(.567), and Chuck Noll(.564).  With his Super Bowl victory assured, Cowher could definitely make a claim to be the highest paid coach in the game.  That would require the Steelers double his salary.  Unlikely to say the least.

So the games begin.  To me it seems that Cowher is devising an exit strategy in case the negotiations with the Steelers sour.

“I can’t control the future — again, that takes two sides — but I do have two years left on my contract, contrary to what some people think. And that’s all I want to talk about it,” he said.

That comment alone shows Cowher’s unhappiness with his current situation.  Obviously he knows what his side wants, and if the Steelers don’t give it to him he may move on.  

So then what?  If Cowher would decide to walk away, what would he do.  Cowher went to North Carolina State, and the move back to the NC State area is suspicious to say the lease.  Wolfpack coach Chuck Amato has come under fire and may be on the hot seat if the ‘Pack struggle again this season.  Could Cowher have interest in returning to his Alma-Mater?

A more intriguing possibility would be for Cowher to walk away at the end of the season, take a year or two off, and return as the Head Coach of a high profile team.  The Dallas Cowboys may have an opening in 2 years or so.  The Washington Redskins may have an opening as well.  The League is trying to get a team in L.A., what better way to creat a buzz.  Each of those situations would pay top dollar to get Cowher on their side.

This puts the Steelers between a rock and a hard place.  The Rooney’s are a loyal bunch, but will be forced to make a tough decision.  Let Cowher walk and withstand the backlash and P.R. nightmare that would insue?  Pay Cowher what he wants, totally out of character for the Rooneys?  Tough indeed.

Cowher holds all the cards, being the face of the organization and the city for that matter.  If he walks away it will appear to be because the team wouolnd’t step up to the plate.  “…It takes two sides…”, those four words say eveything that needs to be said.  Cowher’s side is ready to play hard ball, it’s up to the Rooney family to continue to tango.
 

Projected Record

9-7, 2nd Place NFC East

Projected Schedule W/L
Minnesota                  (W)
@Dallas                     (L)
@Houston                  (W)
Jacksonville               (W)
@NY Giants                (L)
Tennessee                 (W)
@Indianapolis            (L)
Dallas                       (W)
@Philadelphia            (L)
@Tampa Bay             (L)
Carolina                    (W)
Atlanta                      (L)
Philadelphia              (W)
@New Orleans           (L)
@St. Louis                 (W)
NY Giants                  (W)

Year 3 in the return of Joe Gibss in Washington begins in the midst of huge expectations.  After a slow start in 2005 that had “experts” wondering if the game had passed him by, the Redksins won their final 5 games to finish 10-6, and went on to beat Tampa Bay in the playoffs.  It was the plyoff win that has everyone excited going into 2006 and with ownership pumping millions of dollars in Free Agent acquisitions the ‘Skins are expected to win now.  They are a good team, but a tough division will make a good record hard to come by.  When it’s all said and done the Gibbs will get this team back to the playoffs, but there are too many questions to think they will be able to match last season’s success, let alone go after a Super Bowl.

Team Strengths – Gibbs is a Hall of Fame coach, so his ability is unquestioned.  He has put together a staff that rivals any team in any sport.  Greg Williams returns as the Defensive Coordinator, and probably has the inside track on the job when Gibb’s decides to head back to NASCAR.  To help with the offense, Gibbs hired Al Saunders, architect for the Kansas City Chiefs attack the last 5 seasons.  Saunders’ creative schemes should improve the Redskins attack, especially in the Red Zone.  Clinton Portis is one of the best backs in football and will be looked to produce 2000+ all-purpose yards.  The Redskins were active in the Free Agent market, snagging versatile Antwan Randel El on offense, and Safety Adam Archuleta.  Both will be improvements over the players they are replacing.  Randel El will be used very similarly to the way the Steelers were able to use him, all over the field, even at QB.  Santana Moss had a breakout season in 2005, and will look to cement his status as one of the games’ greats.

Team Weaknesses - The quarterback position is one area to be concerned about if you are a Redskins fan.  Mark Brunell is now 35, and doesn’t have the arm or legs that once made him a dangerous field general.  Brunell did have a decent season in ‘05, but there were times the Redskins won in spite of Brunell.  That won’t cut it in the NFC East.  Behind Brunell is Jason Campbell, who the Redskins love but is unproven, making any injury to Brunell catastrophic.  On defense, there are some playmakers, but gone are the like of LaVar Arrington.  Arrington never seemed to mesh with Gibbs and Williams, but he still made big plays when on the field and the Redskins will need to find someone to make those plays.  The defensive backfield is also suspect, with stalwart Shaun Springs out with an injury.

Best Case Scenario – Brunell can stay effective and the Randel El Factor isn’t a rersult of the Steeler’s system.  Santana Moss plays up to his 2005 production and Clinton Portis maintains his production.  Al Saunders’ offensive systems will spruce up a system that seemed to become old and predictable last season.  The Redskins have the ability to win their first 6 games, before a matchup in Indianapolis.   A good start can get a team on a roll that lasts the whole season, and it is doubly important for a team that is expected to win.  No one knows how long Gibbs is going to remain, so winning hi his 4th Title would be a great way for Gibbs to exit the NFL stage.

Worst Case Scenario – If Brunell’s production falls off the table it could be a tough year for Washington.  They are relying on Brunell to make smart plays and hit the big one the one or two times the opportunity presents itself.  If he falters or is injured, the Skin’s will need to get Campbell up and running in a hurry.  Injuries to their star players are already starting to pop up, with Shaun Springs and Clinto Portis already out for the rest of the pre-season.  A bad season could lead to Gibbs deciding to return to racing after the season, leading to some uncertainty heading into ‘06.  

My Opinion - The Redskins are built to win right now.  There is no 5 year plan when you are dealing with a head coach that could call it quits at any time.  There is going to come a time when all these signings come back to haunt the Redskins in terms of the salary cap.  There is alot of pressure, and expectations are high.  The Redskins just aren’t good enough to make a serious run.  At 9-7, I think they’ll sneak into playoffs as the 6th seed, but will be one and done.  What will be interesting to see is what Gibbs will do.  No matter what, anythingless than a Super Bowl will probably be a disappointment to owner Daniel Snyder, whose patience has been known to wear thin quickly.  Unfortunitely for Snyder he just doesn’t have the horses to make a run to a Championship.