The Sports Guru

Projected Record

6-10, 4th Place AFC West

Projected Schedule W/L
San Diego          (W)
@Baltimore        (L)
Cleveland           (L)
@San Francisco  (L)
@Denver           (L)
Arizona              (W)
Pittsburgh          (W)
@Seattle            (L)
Denver               (L)
@Kansas City     (L)
@San Diego       (L)
Houston             (W)
@Cincinnati        (L)
St. Louis             (W)
Kansas City        (W)
@NY Jets            (L)

The Raiders went back to the future this off-season, bringing back a guy they shouldn’t have ever fired in Art Shell.  Shell was a no-nonsense player during his Hall-of-Fame career, and was no-nonsense in his first stint in Oakland.  There are already rumblings of players being unhappy with the iron fist that Shell is using during camp.  Jerry Porter has asked for a trade and other vets that were used to be coddled by Norv Turner have expressed their displeasure.  Shell has it right, and discipline is exactly what the Raiders need.  This season is going to be about getting the aura of the Raiders back.  There will be growing pains, to be sure, but Shell is the man for the job.

Team Strengths – There are great athletes all over the field for the Raiders.  Randy Moss anchors a a big and fast receiving corp that included Porter Doug Gabriel and Ronald Curry.  Gone is Kerry Collins, replaced by Aaron Brooks.  Brooks is one of those guys that is a strength and a weakness.  He has the size and athleticism to be a great quarterback.  With Moss outside and LaMont Jordan in the backfield Brooks will have weapons around him to throw to.  On defense, the Raiders revamped the defensive backfield drafting Saftey Michael Huff out of the University of Texas in the 1st Round.  There doesn’t seem to be no bigger strength than Shell, however, who will bring repsect back to the Silver and Black.

Team Weaknesses - Every bit of positive that Brooks can bring to the table can get wiped away in one dumb play, and that has been the cross Brooks has had to bear.  I mentioned the physical skills above, but Brooks lacks the intangibles and smarts of a top notch quarterback.  This will probably be the last chance Brooks has to be a starting quarterback in the NFL.  The Raiders simply don’t have anything behind him, so the Raiders’ success depends on the play of Brooks.  If he doesn’t show he has learned from his mistakes, and learned not to make them, it will be a long year for Brooks and the Raiders.  The Offensive Line has be re-done, with Robert Gallery moveing back to his natural position.  The Raiders have gotten young on both lines and that will be somthing to watch all season.  Other than Huff, there is a big question mark in the back 7.

Best Case Scenario - Brooks plays up to his ability and meshes immediately with Randy Moss.  LaMont Jordan runs hard for 16 games.  The offensive line comes together and creates time for Brooks and running lanes for Jordan.  The defense will need to be top half because the Raiders are losing something on offense without Collins.  Some injuries to AFC West opponents wouldn’t hurt, either.

Worst Case Scenario – If Brooks shows he hasn’t got it, then the Raiders will be out of it very quickly.  It may not all fall on Brooks, especially if the offensive line doesn’t come together.  The Defense plays to its ability, which is not very good.  Teams are going to score on the Raiders, so the offense is going to need to be efficient.  A full mutiny by the players against Art Shell’s dictatorship might be pretty bad as well.

My Opinion - The Raiders are the “Monet” of the National Football League.  From a distance, the Raiders look beautiful, with players like Brooks and Moss and Porter and Huff.  Get up close, and the Raiders are a mess.  At least this season.  The Raiders just don’t seem to be a team that is working together for a common purpose.  Sure, ask the players and they will say they want to win the Super Bowl, but teams that ultimately get there sacrifice individual glory for the better of the team.  I don’t see that in the Raiders.  I really think this team is going to lose some games they shouldn’t, but also win some games against better competition.  Take a look at my win/loss projection and you’ll see that.  Art Shell is the man for the job and the Raiders will be back.  To get back, Shell is going to have to clean out his backyard of the players that don’t think team first.

For all of us who can’t wait for the College Football season to start, finally some news that doesn’t involve litigation and bail-bondsman.  The first USA Today/Coaches Poll was released today, and it’s my Ohio State Buckeyes at #1.  Some may look at that as a Kiss of Death, but not me.  Think about it.  The horrible system we are stuck with rewards a team for where they finished last year.  Ohio State could lose a game, let’s say at Texas week 2, and not fall far from the top.  Win out and they’ll still have a chance at the National Championship.

Now let’s look at another team I really like that isn’t getting the same respect.  The Iowa Hawkeyes are at #17.  The have a cake schedule, a SR. Quarterback(Drew Tate) and a total of 14 starters returning.  In a rare night game in Iowa City, they get the Buckeyes on a Saturday Night after the Buckeyes deal with Texas in Austin and Penn State in Columbus.  Not an easy trifecta to say the least. Looking at their 12 games, they’ll probably be big favorites in 10 of them, and depending on what the Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines do it may be all 12.  The problem for the Hawkeyes?  It will take them 4 or 5 weeks to climpb the charts to get the help they need in the severely flawed BCS.  Mark it down, you saw it here first.  I like the Hawkeyes.

Looking at the rest of the Top 10, Texas sits at #2, too high for my liking after losing Vince Young.  Notre Dame and USC are tied at #3.  The Irish are going to be tough, but have a vicious schedule.  USC might have a down year after all the success, if you think 2 losses is a “down” year.

Oklahoma sits at #5, but unfortunitely the vote was taken before QB Rhett Bomar was booted of the team for accepting payments for a job he wasn’t doing.  For my part, I don’t think it is going to be as big of a deal as most others.  Sure, they are probably out of National Title consideration, but they have Adrian Peterson and more than enough talent to get it going before they face Texas, and to make a run at the Big 12.

After Auburn at #6 is another intriguing team in my eyes, West Virginia.  After whooping up on Georgia in the Sugar Bowl last season the Mountaineers return 8 on offense and play a cream puff schedule.  There is no reason why W.V. won’t be undefeated at the end of the season, and could be one of those teams left out of the Fieta Bowl because of that schedule.

Florida, LSU and Florida State round out the Top 10, but none of these teams really impress me. 

One thing is to be sure, it feels good to be talking about College Football again and August 31st can’t get here fast enough.

Projected Record

6-10, 4th Place AFC North

Projected Schedule W/L
New Orleans     (L)
@Cincinnati      (L)
Baltimore         (W)
@Oakland        (W)
@Carolina        (L)
Denver            (L)
NY Jets             (W)
@San Diego     (L)
@Atlanta          (L)
Pittsburgh        (L)
Cincinnati         (W)
Kansas City      (L)
@Pittsburgh     (W)
@Baltimore     (L)
Tampa Bay      (W)
@Houston        (L)

I have to be honest.  When I first put all this together I had the Browns at .500.  Then LeCharles Bentley, Ryan Tucker and Daylon McCutcheon went down and Kellen Winslow(career stats: 5 catches, 50 yards, 30/32 games missed)proclaimed that he was the best TE in the NFL.  The more things change the more they stay the same.  Tucker and McCutcheon will be back, but Bentley is lost for the season.  That loss is a 2 game swing for me.  The Browns have dealt with big injuries before and will deal with this one, but no doubt it is a HUGE loss for Cleveland.

Team Strengths – Romeo Crennel is a great coach.  The positive way he has handled the Bentley situation is great to see.  Phil Savage is solid in the front office.  There is finally stability at the top.  On the field, I would have gone with the O-Line, but can’t.  I can go with the defense.  The Browns made huge strides last season converting to the Crennel 3-4 system, actually leading the league in Red Zone efficiency.  In the off-season they got even better by bringing in Ted Washington and Willie McGinest.  With the 13th pick in the draft they drafted DE Kamerion Wimbley.  Linebacker D’Qwell Jackson was drafted in the 2nd round.  It is easy to see the the way the Browns want to build this franchise, and they are on their way.

Team Weaknesses - The loss of Bentley means another long season up front for the Browns.  They have actually downgraded at center, with journeyman Bob Hallen.  Hallen is technically sound but will struggle dealing with the likes of Casey Hampton, Haloti Ngata and Sam Adams, all three of which start at nose tackle in the AFC North.  The line also has lost Ryan Tucker for the pre-season.  Depth was already a problem and if the line sustains any further injuries it could be panic time.  Charlie Frye is now the full-time starter and there has to be a question mark there.
 

Best Case Scenario – All of this Bentley stuff was just a nightmare and he is actually healthy and ready to go.  Ok, so that isn’t going to happen, so the Browns need to hope the injury bug stays away and the youngsters on offense(Frye, Winslow and Braylon Edwards) can have a full season to create a chemistry with each other.  On defense, the Browns need their early draft picks to make a big impact and suck up as much knowledge from the veteran leaders as possible.  The Browns have more talent than at any point since they returned and could still surpise to get to 8-8.

Worst Case Scenario – The Bentley situation is a sign of things to come.  Starters fall left and right and the Browns are forced to play Ken Dorsey at quarterback.  The Browns do have talent, but they lack depth.  If any of the major players get hit with a long-term injury then it could be a disasterous season.  If Frye gets hurt, the Browns are in BIG trouble.
   

My Opinion – During the off-season the Browns were at a crossroads.  Late last season reports had surfaced that GM Phil Savage was going to be fired after only one season.  There were rumors swirling of a feud with team President John Collins.  Collins was a confidant of Owner Randy Lerner.  When word leaked out the fan outpouring forced Lerner to rethink his stance.  It was Collins that ended up leaving, and Savage stayed.  Big win for the Browns.  They finally have the stability at the top all great organizations need.  They have a plan, to build a tough, in-your-face, defense.  They are bringing in Cleveland guys.  LeCharles Bentley, Joe Jurevicious, Matt Zastudil all are from the area.  All understand the rivalry with the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Browns are going in the right direction.  Now they just need to stay healthy.